Watch Your 6
Protect your downside
Disclaimer / Disclosure long EA
Riskless Arb
Or almost riskless… Sign up for Kalshi and spend >$25 on the betting no on When will EA’s take-private acquisition close? Prices move around but approximately and currently: buy ~313 contracts for “no” by April 2027 which costs ~$25.04. That triggers Kalshi’s sign up bonus which ranges from $15 to $500 with a ~$25 expected value. If the deal closes, you probably roughly breakeven on this contract. If the deal breaks or is delayed beyond next April, the contract makes ~$287.96.
Now buy 5 shares of EA. If the deal closes, you get $210. It probably breaks to ~$175. 90-95% chance of the first and 5-10% of the second. On the equity side you make ~$32.95 if the deal closes or lose ~$142.05 in a deal break. With the above free hedge, you still make ~$33 if deal closes. But if it breaks? You make ~$145.91. EA could fall to ~$145 per share before you lose any money net. I expect to be able to sell a standalone EA for more than that, but arbs can be sloppy sellers so it wouldn’t be surprising to see it briefly touch that level.
There is a conceivable (but barely) scenario in which you win both ways: the deal is delayed beyond the Kalshi strike date, you get the entire ~$288 prediction profit. But then the deal subsequently gets done so you get that ~$33 too (maybe just maybe if buyer walks, target sues, and court forces deal closed on original terms after April 2027). Or the deal could break but the shares could trade up. I expect neither scenario, but it could happen. Conversely, there is no scenario (that I can see; comment below if I’m missing something) in which these both lose.